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Research Article 2020-07-28CC BYFree full text

Magnitude, demographics and dynamics of the impact of the first phase of the Covid-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in 17 industrialised countries

Vasilis Kontis, James E Bennett, Theo Rashid, Robbie M Parks, Jonathan Pearson-Stuttard, Michel Guillot +8 more

The Covid-19 pandemic affects mortality directly through infection as well as through changes in the social, environmental and healthcare determinants of health1. The impacts on mortality are likely to vary across countries in magnitude, timing, and age and sex composition. Here, we applied an ensemble of 16 Bayesian probabilistic models to vital statistics data, by age group and sex, to consistently and comparabl…

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Research Article 2020-05-25CC BYFree full text

Age- and sex-specific total mortality impacts of the early weeks of the Covid-19 pandemic in England and Wales: Application of a Bayesian model ensemble to mortality statistics

Vasilis Kontis, James E Bennett, Robbie M Parks, Theo Rashid, Jonathan Pearson-Stuttard, Perviz Asaria +3 more

BackgroundThe Covid-19 pandemic affects mortality directly through infection as well as through changes in the social, environmental and healthcare determinants of health. The impacts on mortality are likely to vary, in both magnitude and timing, by age and sex. Our aim was to estimate the total mortality impacts of the pandemic, by sex, age group and week. MethodsWe developed an ensemble of 16 Bayesian models tha…

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