Consideration for the asymptomatic transmission of COVID-19: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
Department of Community Medicine and School of Public Health, Post Graduate Institute of Medical Education and Research, Chandigarh, India – 160012
Department of Pediatrics, Advanced Pediatric Centre, Post Graduate Institute of Medical Education and Research, Chandigarh, India - 160012
*Corresponding author: Prof. Ravindra Khaiwal, E-mail: khaiwal@yahoo.com, Tel.: +911722755262; fax: +911722744401.Abstract
Objective
Worldwide countries are experiencing viral load in their population, leading to potential infectivity of asymptomatic COVID-19. Current systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to investigate the role of asymptomatic infection worldwide reported in family-cluster, adults, children, health care workers, and travelers.
Design
Online literature search (PubMed, Google Scholar, medRixv, and BioRixv) was accomplished using standard Boolean operators, studies published till 07th June 2020.
Setting
Studies were included from case reports, short communication, and retrospective to cover sufficient asymptomatic COVID-19 transmission reported.
Participants
Familial-clusters, adults, children, health care workers, and travelers.
Results
We observed asymptomatic transmission among familial-cluster, adults, children, health care workers, and travelers with a proportion of 32% 37%, 26%, 6%, and 32%, respectively. This study observed an overall proportion of 31% (95%CI: 0.19-0.44) with heterogeneity of I2 (97.28%, p=<0.001) among all asymptomatic populations mentioned in this study. Among children and healthcare workers, this study showed no heterogeneity; to overcome the interpretation from a fixed model, the random effect model was also applied to estimate the average distribution across studies included in the meta-analysis.
Conclusion
We found and suggest the rigorous epidemiological history, early isolation, social distancing, and increased quarantine period (at least 28 days) after screening asymptomatic cases as well as their close contacts for chest CT scan even after their negative nucleic acid testing to minimize the spread among the community. This systematic review and meta-analysis support asymptomatic COVID-19 transmission between person to person depending on the variation of virus incubation period among individuals. Children especially, school-going aged <18 years, need to be monitored and prevention strategy, e.g., chest CT and social distancing required to prevent the community transmission of COVID-19 in asymptomatic mode.
Strengths and limitations of this study
- Examine the possibility of asymptomatic COVID-19 transmission in the community at different levels.
- Supports contact tracing, social distancing, early isolation, and increased quarantine period to minimize the risk of virus spread.
- Supports chest CT scan and viral nucleic acid testing to identify the asymptomatic cases in the community.
- Supports rigorous epidemiological history with multiple detection methods.
- A higher proportion of asymptomatic incidence was seen, suggests monitoring, and maintaining social distancing.
Article notes
Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
Funding Statement
NA
Introduction
Symptomatic viral infections have been a significant risk factor for the public. It is more concerned while asymptomatic viral infection occurs in the community. For symptomatic cases, fever, dyspnea, dry cough, and diarrhea are the major sign, and symptoms were reported lasting up to 14 days with a median incubation period 9-12 days. Aerosol transmissions occurred through sneezing or coughing and reported to be the primary route of infection from person to person 1. Simulation studies have been done and observed asymptomatic transmission among person-person2. PCR-based assays were suggested in managing the asymptomatic transmission of the virus by carriers 3. The first case of asymptomatic transmission of COVID-19 was reported by JAMA on 21st February 2020 by an asymptomatic carrier (He et al., 2020; Wang et al., 2020). Asymptomatic infection was reported as “hidden coronavirus infections” (“infections” or “covert coronavirus infections” 5. Asymptomatic COVID-19 cases should be quarantined for 14 days, and their nucleic acid test should be negative twice before discharging, which is mentioned in the COVID-19 prevention and control protocol (6th edition). Worldwide, interest in asymptomatic COVID-19 infections and their transmission potential has been increased 6. In China, around 86% asymptomatic COVID-19 transmission was undocumented before travel restrictions 6.
Till now, asymptomatic COVID-19 cases have been reported among Familial-cluster 7–12, pregnant women 13,14, adults 15–24, children 1,25,26, health care worker 27–29, and travelers 30–34. Considering the potential transmission of asymptomatic COVID-19 among the community we tried to accumulate the desired information from the general population as well as vulnerable groups from the different backgrounds were taken, and meta-analysis was performed. There are no previous studies available for asymptomatic COVID-19 transmission among different subgroups between person-person.
Methods
Search Strategy
For the meta-analysis PRISMA guideline was applied on this study 35,36, Boolean operators “asymptomatic transmission”, “((COVID-19) AND (Coronavirus)) AND (Asymptomatic transmission)”, “((COVID-19) OR (Coronavirus)) AND (asymptomatic transmission)”, “(SARS-CoV-2) AND (asymptomatic transmission)”, “(2019-nCoV) AND (asymptomatic transmission)”, “(Wuhan pneumonia) AND (asymptomatic transmission)”, “(Wuhan flu) AND (asymptomatic transmission)”, “(2019-nCoV acute respiratory disease) AND (asymptomatic transmission)”, “(2019-nCoV respiratory syndrome) AND (asymptomatic transmission)” used for the PubMed database, Google scholar, medRxiv, and BioRixv. The study included published literature without language restriction until 07th June 2020. Selection criteria (Inclusion/exclusion criteria): studies with the following conditions were included for the meta-analysis: (1) Case reports, case series, and cohort study, (2) Asymptomatic infection of COVID-19 (clinical, laboratory or both confirmed), and (3) Studies reporting cross-sectional were excluded.
Data extraction
Details of authors, sample size, and numbers reported for the asymptomatic infection of COVID-19 were extracted and recorded independently. Data extraction was done separately by two independent reviewers and disagreement was settled by joint discussion. To minimize the risk of duplication of data was carefully handled.
Quality assessment
Publication bias
Possible publication bias was not calculated in this study as we have included cohort, case report study design to cover the possible asymptomatic cases considering the current situation causing limited power of the among studies 38.
Statistical analysis and data synthesis
After extracting the results, studies were pooled, and the effect of asymptomatic transmission of COVID-19 was examined through the random effects method. For continuous outcome standard error (SE) with 95% CI was calculated. The heterogeneity (I2statistic) was assessed between studies. I2 values the existence of heterogeneity was taken, as suggested by Higgins and colleagues 35,39,40. Data for meta-analysis was accomplished as described by 35,41.
Patient and public involvement
There was no direct patient or public involvement in this systematic review and meta-analysis.
Results: Literature search
Literature search and screening were done according to the PRISMA chart (Figure: 1). Initially, 4,667 published research articles were identified using online database search. After the removal of 4617 Publications due to duplications, only 50 research articles were shortlisted, followed by further screened for relevance. Finally, 27 articles meeting the inclusion criteria were grouped into the family-cluster (total studies: 06), Adults (total studies: 10), Children (total studies: 03), health care workers (total studies: 03), and travelers (total studies: 05) were included in the quantitative synthesis of the current study.
Characteristics of the Study
The main components of the studies are summarized (Table 1). All published research articles fall under the cohort (observational) study design. Most of the studies are from China, Korea, USA, Japan, and Germany. The study included articles published/available online till 07th June 2020.
Quality assessment
The Newcastle Ottawa Scale (for cohort studies) was used for qualitative evaluation of the studies included in the meta-analysis 35,37. The risk of bias was assessed based on three domains (selection, comparability, and outcome), as highlighted (Table 2).
Publication bias
This study included studies published as well as unpublished literature on MedRxic and BioRiv, as long as it meets study inclusion criteria.
Discussion
The current study summarized available retrospective studies, case reports from family-cluster, adults, children, health care workers, and travelers. Person to person asymptomatic transmission was observed among familial-cluster in an asymptomatic COVID-19 child aged ten years showed abnormal chest CT and another child with mild chest CT manifestation when his family members were diagnosed COVID-19 positive showing sign of fever and respiratory issues 8,9. The study suggests that thorough epidemiological investigations in combination with multiple detection methods (e.g., RT-PCR, chest CT, Rapid IgM-IgG, and serum CRP level) can identify the asymptomatic carriers 10,11 in the community among varying clinical manifestations between individuals. Another study supports the possibility of asymptomatic transmission among familial-cluster during the incubation period 12. In a familial-cluster of 5 positive COVID-19 patients had contact with other asymptomatic family members who returned from the Wuhan, suggestive of asymptomatic transmission 7.
Studies included in the current meta-analysis were checked for the likelihood ratio (LR) between random effect and fixed-effect models for the distribution of asymptomatic COVID-19 transmission among the community.
Among pregnant woman’s fetuses are at high-risk during any disease outbreak, in pregnant woman with asymptomatic COVID-19 viral infection delivered a baby negative for the COVID-19 nucleic acid test Suggestive of no vertical transmission among neonates born to COVID-19 infected mothers 14,42–49. In Wuhan, a lower fatality rate and higher discharge rate were observed than in Beijing. It is crucial to identify and take necessary control measures among adults of asymptomatic cases to prevent transmission 21. In South Korea, 41 asymptomatic adults were identified and were confirmed by RT-PCR out of 213 cases 17. Among 100 asymptomatic cases, 60% developed delayed symptoms, and none of the asymptomatic cases died, suggesting asymptomatic transmission during the incubation period 18. Another study did not observe any difference in the symptomatic and asymptomatic COVID-19 transmission rates among patients22. In adults, CT imaging of asymptomatic COVID-19 individuals has advantages in highly suspicious cases with negative nucleic acid testing 17. In adults, a serological investigation among 31 out of 34 cases with asymptomatic infection did not require oxygen support during hospitalization 15. Theoretically, the quantified infection transmission rate shows the estimated risk ratio (RR) of infectivity [3.9%, (95%CI: 1.5 – 11.8)] of symptomatic against asymptomatic.
In asymptomatic adults, the transmission was significantly smaller than that of the symptomatic cases 16. No gender difference among males and females was observed for asymptomatic transmission 20.
Further longitudinal surveillance via virus nucleic acid testing is warranted to identify and control the viral load among asymptomatic CVOID-19 cases 24 in adults. In a study, 4 asymptomatic cases were quarantined for 14 days, and none was able to transmit the infections due to managing proper isolation and quarantine of the cases 19.
Asymptomatic COVID-19 transmission was seen in children 26. In a study, 24 asymptomatic cases were screened from close contacts of asymptomatic COIVD-19 25. Another study supports the multiple site sampling of close contacts should be performed 1 among children. In a review, it was observed that the adults as compared to children with COVID-19 infection show mild clinical symptoms and radiological manifestations as previously reported for SARS- and the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS)-CoV 50.
Health care workers in a nursing facility: Rapid transmission of COVID-19 had been reported in 76 residents cases. and 23 (30.3%) had positive test results, and approximately 13 were asymptomatic on the day of testing, suggesting the possibility of asymptomatic transmission of COVID-19 27. Establishing effective infection control strategies to prevent the transmission among frontline health care workers and patients from COVID-19 infections should be managed urgently and on priority. In another study, out of 48 participants observed, two asymptomatic cases become positive, suggesting appropriate symptom-based testing strategies are essential to prevent outbreaks of COVID-19 within hospital settings 29. In the USA, health care workers not wearing respirators were exposed to an asymptomatic CVOID-19 patient without developing clinical illness 28.
Traveler: In Korea, COVID-19 was transmitted by 16 infected travelers from other countries. The disease was infectious at this stage, which resulted from close contacts of asymptomatic carriers 30. Most of the infections on board the Diamond Princess Cruise ship highlight the asymptomatic transmission of COVID-19 in confined settings. To further mitigate the transmissibility of COVID-19, it may be advised to minimize the number of gathering in confined settings 32. A 36-year-old traveler returned from Wuhan was found COVID-19 positive, and other health workers who were in close contact with the patients were also tested RT-PCR positive. However, the patient initially had no symptoms 33. A higher proportion of asymptomatic (12%) was reported among travelers returning to Brunei. In another study, it was suggested to increase the testing facility for asymptomatic COVID-19 cases 34. Similarly, an asymptomatic COVID-19 patient showed viral transmissibility without showing any signs and symptoms in travelers from China 31. Although, we recommend early isolation for and social distancing for asymptomatic COVID-19 cases, which may led to psychological and emotional loss as reported in qualitative study from UK51.
Limitations
There are some limitations in the current systematic review and meta-analysis. A mixed population, a continuous variable, variation in clinical conditions, and statistical methods may differ and cause heterogeneity among studies included in the current meta-analysis. Further, the study included only asymptomatic COVID-19 transmission reported cases that were included.
Study Importance
This is the first study reviewing the possibility of asymptomatic COVID-19 transmission at different levels in the community and identified the potential role of isolation, identification of close contacts, social distancing and testing asymptomatic COVID-19 cases with chest CT scan and nucleic acid testing to minimize the spread of the virus in the community.
The implication of our study
This is the first meta-analysis on the possibility of asymptomatic COVID-19 transmission covering different levels in the community.
Conclusion
Currently, there is no evidence of COVID-19 transmission ability in the asymptomatic stage, but evidence suggests that asymptomatic infections were not limited from neonates to children and adults. In young people, strong immune status was supposed to be protected against the COVID-19 severity. We hypothesize that the asymptomatic carriers, either children or adults, should be vigilant as they are capable of shielding and transmitting the infection in their incubation period without showing any signs and symptoms. As the evidence supports the involvement of lung function in asymptomatic COVID-19 cases, we recommend the chest CT scans among asymptomatic cases, a useful tool to monitor and trace cases in their incubation period.
Data Availability
No additional data available.
Contributors
Dr. Khaiwal Ravindra: Concept design, data extraction, interpretation, final correction and writing first draft. Mr. Vivek Singh Malik: Data extraction, interpretation and writing first draft. Dr. Bijaya K Padhi: Interpretation, internal review of data, review and editing. Dr. Sonu Goel: Discussion, review and editing. Dr. Madhu Gupta: Internal review of data, review and editing.
Acknowledgment
We thank the Department of Community Medicine and School of Public Health,PGIMER, and Indian Council of Medical Research, New Delhi.
Funding/Support
None.
Conflict of Interest
None.
Pateint consent
not required.
Data sharing statement
No addditonal data avialable.